Philippines – The intervention of Forex or Foreign Exchange might help in cooling down the inflation in the Philippines aside from increasing interest rates, as per IMF or International Monetary Fund.
In the recent Regional Economic Outlook for the Asia Pacific, IMF stated that the interventions should be temporary to prevent side effects, like the risks involving the private sector. IMF stated that Forex interventions often come with policy rate tramps to alleviate overextending and pass-through inflation. The weak Philippine peso contributed to the price boost as the Philippines stayed a net fuel and food importer.
According to the report, the tool is useful among the shallower Forex markets in Asia, where intrusions are more efficient. This tool can help prevent de-anchoring inflation opportunities, like in the Philippines. In it economy where currency mismatches on corporate or bank balance sheets make sit riskier from exchange rate instability.
IMF stated that the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and India were among the emerging markets in Asia. These developing economies have already witnessed the decumulation of worldwide reserves, which is between 3 and 10 percent in 2022’s first semester, because of severe external funding shocks.
IMF also stated that the judicious utilization of Forex intervention should be permitted for macroeconomic change to happen. It might temporarily alleviate the problem of economic policy, letting it stay concentrated on steadying domestic demand.
On the other hand, the same report was shared where IMF anticipates the GDP growth of the Philippines to be sluggish this year up to 2024 compared to the July report. The latest projection of the IMF shows that the GDP is anticipated to average 6.5% this year, 5% next year, and 6% in 2024. The estimate for this year is 0.2% points lower than the forecast on July 22 in the WEO or World Economic Outlook of IMF back in April.
The forecast for next year has the same result as the WEO in July. However, 1.3% is lower than the WEO of April. For 2024, the 0.5% under the estimated percentage is also in the WEO reports for July and April.
IMF stated that the solid economic rally of Asia lost momentum since it had a weaker-than-anticipated second quarter.
Krishna Srinivasan, the IMF director in the Asia and Pacific Department, stated that the Philippines cut growth forecasts for the Pacific and Asia to 4%, and it will be 4.3% next year, which is down by 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively, compared to the WEO in April.
Srinivasan stated that the initial headwind is worldwide financial tightening, which is displayed in stricter funding conditions for Asia.